Just like during the 2008 global recession, when food prices were sky-high and unaffordable, the same is happening this year, this time because of shortage of food. Already maize prices have gone up 60 percent in the past few months, hiking prices of mealie meal, writes KEABETSWE NEWEL and GAOKGAKALA MAENGE.
Tshepo Moeka shakes her head in despair, when The Business Weekly & Review team inquires about her take on the current trend in food prices. She says she has observed that when rain is scarce and people have not ploughed, retail supermarkets hike food prices. “Maybe it is because they know that we have no choice but to buy food at whatever price they choose,” she quips. She is a 32-year-old hawker, who resides in the low-income township of Old Naledi otherwise known as Zola. Feel free to call her a hustler, because that is what she calls herself.
But the hustling is tough because the little she gets is squandered on food. “It’s all I work for because I have to feed myself and my family back at the village,” she adds. She spends at least P1 200 on a monthly basis on food, which has since become short to satisfy her and the family. “Food prices keep on going up and up every time I check,” she remarks, adding that she cannot even save money or buy new clothes regularly because she makes just less that P2 000 every month peddling sweets, airtime, fruits and other goodies.
Food prices have increased especially for rice, maize meal and sorghum, our staple food.
She says people no longer buy a lot because there is no money.
Her plight is shared by Tapiwa, a security officer at Security Systems who also earns less than P2 000. “Food prices have increased especially for rice, maize meal and sorghum, our staple food,” she said. She has since withdrawn from her social saving scheme, Motshelo, because she cannot afford to save a penny but rather lives from hand to mouth. The mother of two boys is compelled to now buy the cheapest of food, which is low quality and not good to eat. So sad is her situation that she is now a regular at the loan sharks, where she borrows to feed her family, a habit that has since become a part of her life.
Tshepo and Tapiwa’s stories are testimonies of the struggles of hundreds of thousands of Batswana out there that feel the pinch of a gradual rise in food prices, and await a worst case scenario since prices are expected to rise further. In fact, Lead Researcher at Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation (BITRI) Professor Nnyaladzi Batisani made headlines this week with a caution that says the current drought combined with volatility in global markets pose serious challenges to the country’s food security.
The academic published a paper titled “Climate variability, yield instability and global recession: the multi-stressor to food security in Botswana” in which he notes that changes in rainfall patterns and droughts increase the likelihood of crop failures and production declines causing food insecurity.
“Just like in 2008/2009 where food price increase and financial meltdown co-acted to amplify the already dire climate-induced food insecurity in the country, the same is likely to happen this year,” he warned. “We are in trouble,” Tapiwa said, after The Business Weekly & Review shared with her what Batisani has cautioned against. Already, a 10kg bag of rice hovers around P100, while a 12.5 kg of maize meal is over P60.
These prices are expected to rise. Nkosi Mwaba, Chairperson of Millers Association of Botswana, said local millers imported 95 percent of maize from South Africa. The latter has been since hit by a drought and is producing only 47 percent from its farms. Mwaba said this had compelled Africa’s second largest economy to spend R20 billion importing maize from as far as Mexico, and the country has been compelled to inflate prices by over 60 percent when selling to countries lsuch as Botswana.
The more expensive food becomes would mean an automatic increase in the national inflation rate.
He said the South African Futures Exchange (Safex ) was exposed to a host of other international market forces, and had been forced to trade a tonne of maize at R5 100, a sharp increase from the R3 000 per tonne seen last year this time. Safex is the futures exchange subsidiary of JSE Limited, the Johannesburg-based exchange. It consists of two divisions; a financial markets division for trading of equity derivatives and an agricultural markets division (AMD) for trading of agricultural produce. Towards the end of last year, Kushatha Modiakgotla, Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board (BAMB) spokesperson, announced that the board was in talks with Zambia to start importing maize. She said such a move occurs as a last resort to ensure food stability in the country.
The strategic grain reserves (SGR) managed by BAMB maintain 30 000 tonnes of sorghum, 30 000 tonnes of maize and 10 000 tonnes of beans. The quantities stipulated are as contracted by the government for SGR. Last year, BAMB received 26 000 metric tonnes of sorghum, 6 000 metric tonnes of cowpeas and an insignificant amount of maize, which sparked negotiations with Zambia in a quest to import. Such challenges are expected to affect food prices, which also concerns Chandra Chauhan, Group Managing Director (MD) at Sefalana Group. He was worried that as retailers, they have to also hike food prices because production has become expensive as a result of shortage regionally. “In the next six months food prices are going to reach the highest level,” he said.
At Botswana College of Agriculture (BCA), agricultural economist Milly Monkhei said this could lead to total increase in food prices, driven by the expensive procurement of such grain and even the high demand of food while supply remains lower. The agricultural guru cautions further that such dynamics could then squeeze Batswana’s disposable and household income since they would start spending more on food, a basic need.
“The more expensive food becomes would mean an automatic increase in the national inflation rate given the weight carried by food on the Consumer Price Index (CPI),” she said. Food index carries 21.84 percent, the heaviest in the CPI.
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